Glass PRN’s

URM generate hundreds of thousands of Glass PRN’s each year; 85% of which are Remelt grade.

Closed loop recycling at its finest

URM offer these PRN’s for sale on a spot or forward basis.

Click on “ENQUIRE NOW” if you wish to discuss your requirements.

 

We also want your Glass waste to process – You need PRN’s to meet your obligation

If you have a PRN obligation and have glass waste from the material you handle let’s talk.

URM are the largest processor of Glass waste in the UK; producing several hundred thousand tonnes of Cullet for Remelt in the UK and Europe every year.

All their glass waste collected is processed in the UK. The waste produced from our benefication plants is further processed to the WRAP protocol to be used as an aggregate material.

URM issue a Remelt PRN for every tonne of glass that goes to Remelt, and will issue a Glass Other PRN for the glass content of the Glass aggregate.

Are you a brewery with glass waste, a pub estate, a supermarket chain with Bottle Banks in the car park. We have a fleet of Bulkers, Bottle Banks, Skips and RoRos with national coverage ready to collect.

URM are happy to provide PRN’s for the glass tonnage they collect from you as part of the standardised collection agreement

PRN’s traded from a £6 low to a £90 high in 2012-13, this volatility caused a lot of difficulties for obligated companies.

By offering PRN’s for glass waste tonnage collected URM can mitigate that financial risk to you of another upwards price cycle and in return URM source more glass waste to process at their feedstock hungry plants.  A symbiotic relationship

Enquire now for more details!

PRN Walkthrough

2019 v 2018 review after Q3

The glass obligation has risen to 1,734k in 2019 along with an extra 1% added to the obligated target (79%); a significant increase

 

Q1-Q3 results
Glass Remelt : 3% fall against 2018

 

The UK  have produced an average of 329K Remelt  per quarter in 2019 against 336k in the same period 2018; a 3% fall in Remelt production

 

Glass Other: –  62% increase against 2019
Glass Other produced has risen from an average 73.4k in 2018 to 118.8k in 2019; a 62% increase in production

 

A high PRN in the first half of the year undoubtedly took glass waste away from Remelt to Other. Indeed, without the Remelt stock carried over from 2018 by URM at Tilbury this figure would be worse

 

Simple economics show Glass Other production is a loss maker at the current price [sub  £10], which should see Glass Other production return to the mean output of 72k per quarter seen previously [Glass Other purely as a by-product of Remelt processing]

 

We are aware there are ongoing investigations into fraud, the outcome or timing of which we have no control over.
With 2 months remaining of 2019, we project a Q4 figure of 320K Remelt and 97k Other, totalling 417k.
This projects a simple surplus on the year of circa 26K; a very strong performance against higher targets.

A performance derived purely from Glass Other which should be the red flag for 2020

 



2020 Outlook

Another 1% increase in the obligation would increase the Quarterly target to 437.8K in 2020

 

Remelt is expected to return a mean 323k [max350k] per quarter, this is unlikely to increase as extra capacity can’t simply be turned on. A PRN above £25 might attract some more material to be exported as raw waste, but UK cullet production is unlikely to rise significantly

 

Glass Other provides the elasticity in Glass PRN’s
A PRN currently trading at £10 should return Glass Other to circa 72K per quarter [the levels last seen with a £12 PRN] and production would not see significant increase until PRN rises strongly above £21

 

Late 2018 and early 2019 saw a huge destocking of UK Glass Aggregate waste on the back of a strong PRN price, we believe the only surplus stocks currently remaining are imaginary ones
We believe 2019 has contained a significant level of fraud on this market. We are also confident this will not be a feature in 2020

 

With a sub £20 PRN we can project a 2020 quarterly delivery of 395k; 42.8k below target.  This could seriously destabilise the market in 2020 though may not be recognised well into Q2.

 

URM believe PRN prices will rise quite sharply as the year progresses, the longer it takes the market recognise this situation the sharper the rise will.

 

With this market view the URM board has decided hold onto its 2020 PRN’s until the picture becomes clearer and would recommend obligated producers take advantage of any lower prices available whilst they can.

 

Steve Dixon

URM

Q3 Update – 9th October 2019

Keeping it simple…

 

We think Q3 will give a pretty decent number continuing a strong year-to-date relative to 2018

 

What sits outside this rosy picture is that we have seen the Obligation rise strongly against 2018, the last time a looked we required 1.734 million tonnes.

The expected strong number in Q3 will only put us slightly ahead for the year against this target.

 

Q4 will certainly be weak at current PRN prices. Xmas usually takes 20-30k Remelt from the quarterly number and an Aggregate PRN dropping
from £30+ to currently £15 makes Glass Other ‘production’ unattractive; even to fraudsters.

 

If nothing else changes we may rely on carry over to get us over the line this year.

 

Steve Dixon

URM

Q2 PRN Data released this week – 26th July

Remelt year to-date is 50k down on H1 2018.

Whilst hugely sceptical about the volume of Glass Other Aggregate PRN’d delivered this year  [ up 70% (97k)  against H1 2018], with Glass Other PRN’s trading now around £17 the active processing of Aggregate simply DOES NOT WORK economically.

 

I expect the ‘active’ processing of Glass Aggregates to slump in Q3 and would initially suggest a total Glass PRN figure around 400k for Q3.

 

The monthly data should give a reasonable indication of the veracity on this notion.

 

At this point we are in the hands of the final obligation figure which should rise  based on the ‘2018 drinking summer’.

 

If I had an obligation I would be a strong buyer of this dip, as a seller I would have my feet up and be looking for a price rise into the end of year.

 

Get in touch…

Steve Dixon

URM

NPWD Q1 Recycling summary – 23rd April

Overall a higher than expected number reported today for glass recycling, coming in at 443.5k for the quarter, ….50k higher than a year ago. Glass looks comfortable.

 

However the devil as ever is in the detail.

 

Glass Remelt [320.4k] actually had its weakest quarter since Q4 2017 reflecting a build-up of stock after Q4’s destocking and a diversion of some feedstock into Aggregates.

 

Glass Other had an ‘unbelievable’ quarter posting 123k, more than  doubling  its Q1 2018 figure and matching the stellar number reported in Q4 2018.

 

Keep your eyes open for heavily laden Harley-Davidsons.

Tick-Tock

Q1 Early thoughts…

The large glass recycling companies have invested millions in the last few years in the technology and plants to process lower quality feedstock to furnace ready Cullet and in Q1-Q3 2018 the UK saw Remelt providing 80-85% of all Glass Recycling. [Up from 68% in 2015], a serious achievement

 

However the 67-33% PRN split designed to push recycling into Remelt by providing a premium  has now become pointless and lobbying to raise the split above 80-20 has fallen on deaf ears.

 

We are now in a situation where a combination of a higher PRN price and no price differential between the Remelt- Other PRN means feedstock that could go to Remelt is being diverted onto Aggregate. With zero investment anyone can pay a contract crusher a small fee to send good quality glass bottles to aggregate filling holes in the ground; simply pocketing the PRN.

 

Though fraught with hazard guessing the data is always fun so head above parapet we are currently projecting 423k for the Quarter with 73% Remelt split the lowest for 2 years,  Aggregate nearly doubling its number from a year ago.

 

Steve Dixon

URM

NEWS – 1st March Glass PRN’s

2018 Round up

A sudden lift in the obligation number from a ‘late’ submission  in early Q4 meant PRN prices rose dramatically. This had the effect of flushing out stockpiles of previously uneconomic aggregate glass, this along with Remelt destocking at the high PRN price produced a stellar quarter for glass.

 

2019 Outlook

The obligation numbers are 1% higher in 2019 and will be based on a drink friendly 2018 [a strong football World Cup & ‘the Heatwave’], any economic slowdown / miserable English summer would mean less glass available to be recycled against a higher obligation

 

The 1% rise will be largely offset by an increase in carry over.

 

Heavy investment in processing technology has seen a huge increase in glass waste recycled to Remelt. The national 67-33% Remelt-Aggregate split designed to push recycling to Remelt is now totally redundant, with the industry as a whole recycling to 75-80% to Remelt.

 

For 2019 we believe the Remelt number will ebb and flow around the current level. [320k-350k per quarter]

 

The only recycling elasticity is in Glass Other. A very surprising January Glass Other figure of 35k could be chalked down to carry over from activity in December If it is repeated in Feb then the Glass market looks robust.  URM view Q4’s 43k increase in Glass Other as a clear out of 4 years of uneconomic glass. A continued strong PRN between £25-£30 could probably add 10-12k Glass Other per quarter to the recycling figures which will be needed.

 

URM are currently projecting a Q1 figure of c411,000
The variables are Glass Other… [‘watch these numbers’]  and Glass Waste Exported. – URM export zero waste.. and provide 100% UK sourced PRN’s

 

With so many other commodities causing difficulties, it is easy to park Glass to one side as one thing not to worry about. The risks are there though,  if Glass Other does not perform strongly the market will be tight and there is no ‘get out of jail’ glass stockpile card to play this year!

 

Always happy to talk PRN’s …..

Steve Dixon

URM

NEWS – URM PRN Update Nov 19th 2018

Q4 outlook : The rise in the Glass Obligation to 1,679,563 as of 19th November is not unexpected given that World Cup hot summer, the surprise is that it has risen so strongly so late in the year.

 

Q4 currently needs c454K to comply and given that Q4 is normally weaker than Q3 [406k]  [end of the summer ‘drinking season’  / xmas disruption] this is a serious challenge and there is only 5 full working weeks left to achieve it.

 

The current surging PRN price should uncover dormant glass piles previously uneconomic to process;  combine this with last year’s carry over should allow Glass to hit the required number. However the big unknown is how many Glass PRN’s hoovered up in Q1 to Q3 under £15 are being held for General.  There wont be a large Glass PRN surplus ready to supply General.

 

We suspect the market will continue to demand a premium in the Glass PRN to encourage the Horse Trading required to get the Glass PRN’s in its correct place.

PRNs